Monster Portfolio Week 38 Results

MONSTER PORTFOLIO 2011


Balance: Inception 01/07/11
$1977.32 Stock
$13.65 Cash
Total $1990.97

Balance: End of Week 36 09/30/11

$2,137.62 Stock
$12.05 Cash
Total $2,149.67

Since Inception: -22.44%

Back out cash inflow and we have a balance of $1,544.17. 

It appears the stock market has tricked my logic once again!  When I can’t imagine stocks going lower, another brutal week occurs.  I apologize for anyone that has lost money with my advice, but frankly this market is out of control.  The looming issues in Europe have pored over into the U.S. equity market.  No stock was left untouched.  Investing has become a loser’s game in the short term.  I’m at the point where I have to stick to my stock picks and grind it out. 

I almost unloaded Apple (AAPL) today to bet the farm on Weatherford (WFT), but decided against that.  My bet would have worked out, but to sell Apple well off its high just didn’t feel right.  And I was a little upset that Apple didn’t release the iPhone 5.  LOL!  They did however introduce the new iPhone 4S, which looks identical to the iPhone 4, but with added features including a faster processer, new 8MP camera, IOS 5, iCloud, and the new intelligent phone assistant Siri.  Even though the iPhone 5 didn’t release today the new and improved iPhone 4S should help drive even higher sales for the iPhone.  My wife recently purchased an iPhone 4 and I have to say the phone is pretty sweet!

In closing please don’t lose faith in the stock market.  The last minute rally today in the market gave me hope that the trend will soon change.  Stocks are currently hostage to Europe, but I believe this issue will be addressed sooner than later.

Clay-

“When in doubt buy more!”

Current Holdings:
Apple (AAPL)
Cosi Inc. (COSI)
Weatherford International (WFT)

Monster Portfolio 2011 Week 33 Results

MONSTER PORTFOLIO 2011

Balance: Inception 01/07/11
$1977.32 Stock
$13.65 Cash
Total $1990.97

Balance: End of Week 32 08/26/11

$2,333.12 Stock
$82.88 Cash
Total $2,416.00

Since Inception: -8.19%

Back out cash inflow and we have a balance of $1,828.00. 


My portfolio gained +6.38% vs. last week results.  Not a bad bounce off the low’s!  I wish I could smooth out the volatility, but it doesn’t appear I can do that with a couple of grand.  For many of you that follow my blog my portfolio is wild.  I own 3 individual companies of course it’s going to be volatile. 

For those of you who are long term investors this portfolio isn’t for you.  It's for those who would like to turn a little bit of money into something potentially larger in a short period of time.  Long term investors should be investing completely different.  Investing in index funds is a perfect way to come accustom to the stock market.  The last month or so has been out of control, but I don’t want that to deter anyone from investing.  If you are a person that can think long term, this short term volatility shouldn’t bother you one bit.  I constantly hear people say I’m going to have to work another 20 years in order to retire. I lost a lot of money in the stock market and I can’t see the end in sight.  Folks there is no evidence that this is true! The market will snap back!  Human nature is to get down on yourself when things aren’t going your way.  I have the same problem, but a few months later I’m back on the saddle looking for a way to make my money back sooner than later. 

If anything I’m a great example of a person that can manage to weather the storm.  I don’t know too many people that can withstand losing 20% in less than a month and still feel good about the stock market.  I take the market downturn as a learning experience, but also as an opportunity to exploit the best situations for potential financial gain.  You have to be active.  When you’re losing money it’s easy to stick your head in the sand.  You are not doing yourself any favors.  Address the situation.  Determine if your investments are still worth owning.  If you come to the conclusion that there are better opportunities to make money elsewhere sell your investment immediately.  If you continue to like your current investments, it’s a perfect time to buy more.  Remember you are investing for your future. 

My philosophy is when in doubt buy more. LOL! I have always made most of my money when stocks are out of favor and have lost a lot at the top.  When I feel great about the stock market that is when I should be selling.  Invest when others are scared and a majority of the time you will come out ahead.  Even though my portfolio has fell back into the red I still believe investing in stocks is by far the best vehicle to create wealth over time. 

Clay-

Current Holdings:
Apple (AAPL)
Cosi Inc. (COSI)
Weatherford International (WFT)

"When in doubt buy more!"

Wall Street Make Up Your Mind Already!

Wall Street Make Up Your Mind Already! This is what I have been saying to myself for quite sometime. Wall Street needs a sense of direction. The one thing that is nagging this market is jobs! Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! It was only months ago that the stock market was trucking along and then the jobless claims started to rise.  The perception is jobs will not improve anytime soon. Today's report was more fuel to add to the fire. Another disappointing number!

Jobs continue to disappointment! The numbers were worst then expected, with a weekly initial jobless claims of 500,000. That’s 25,000 claims more than the 475,000 expected by the analysts. This is truly the only thing that is stopping this market from going higher. Every time claims come out we sell off! It’s obviously a negative to the market and the economy, but jobs have been terrible for quite sometime.

Everyone (I mean traders) are too quick to judge and any piece of bad news is an immediate sell. That to me isn’t logical. Why would you want to waste your time and energy selling a stock that you liked just a few days ago? This is what the stock market does. I’m here to tell you not to worry. The short term gyrations are meant to make people panic and sell their stock. There are many fund managers out there that still have plenty of money to put into the market. Lower prices are great for people that still need to get into the market. Negative news allows people to accumulate. To me that’s a good thing. A market that continues to move higher without stopping to take a break is a recipe for disaster.

As of today I’m not worried. I get excited at the potential of buying stock at lower prices. If you put in the time to do your research and build a great case for owning a company the short term sell-offs will be a blessing and not a curse. Buy more! It’s that simple. Investing is all about the future. If you can picture a better future for stock prices you will come to peace with the market. 6 months from now everyone will be laughing at how ridiculous it was to fret over the short term volatility.

If stocks were perfectly priced and in line with all the data there would be no reason to invest. No one would be able to make money. That’s why these sell-offs create opportunities in some stocks because the underlying value doesn't reflect the current price. It’s just like buying a house for less than market value, or a used car for a bargain. The potential to make a profit is there! I continue to stay optimistic as I see great potential for stocks.

Look at the market this way. Yes jobs are weak, but look at how well the earnings have been for the majority of companies over earnings season. Earnings have been great! If companies are improving their balance sheets and earnings are on the rise, the potential is huge! What will happen to stock prices when the economy turns and revenue increases? Earnings will explode! That’s why you invest now. Then you won’t miss the gobs of money on the way up as stock prices soar! It’s all about the Future! Future! Future!

On a positive note on a down day Intel (INTC) decided to buy software/security maker MCAFFE (MFE) for $7.7 Billion or $48.00 a share. Just yesterday MCAFFE closed at $29.93. Today MFE closed at $47.01. That’s a +57.07% return in one day! If that doesn’t get you excited that I don’t know what will. Companies wouldn’t be acquiring other companies if things weren’t getting better. I truly believe this is a sign of better things to come. So should you!

All research derived from http://finance.yahoo.com/

Have a great night! I’ll be back on Sunday.

Clay-

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I'm Looking For A Move To The Upside! Rally Up!

Can you say boring!  When the market has little action something is about to occur.  I have seen the stock market time and time again trade with little direction similar to the past couple weeks and when you least expect it the buyers come in and flood the market creating a powerful move to the upside. I'm going to go out on a limb and say with the beating the market took last week were do for a move upward.  Plus I need to make some money! When I'm bored things happen!

Have a good night!

Clay-

Friday's Jobs Data???

The stock market action for Friday showed how resilient the market can be even when negative news floods the news wire. I mentioned on Thursday’s blog post that the July nonfarm payrolls would be released on Friday. I stated that if the numbers were negative stocks would most likely head lower. This is a very important number to pay attention to.

Well the numbers weren’t good! Non farm payrolls fell to 131,000. Analyst’s predicted the total number was to be about 65,000 jobs lost. That’s double the amount of jobs lost compared to what was predicted. The other key number taken from this report is the addition of private employment jobs and the number fell short of expectations adding only 71,000 compared to the analyst’s number of 90,000. Private employment is a better gauge of the health of the economy. Also, the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 9.5%

Although the overall numbers weren’t very good there were a few positives that came out of this report. Those 2 positives were 1. The average hourly earnings were up 0.2% and 2. The totals hours worked in a week were up slightly by 0.1%. Any increase in these 2 numbers is positive as this shows improvement to the internal data towards to recovery of the jobs market.

All numbers and research was derived from

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6752JM20100806

In my opinion jobs will continue to be a sore spot in the stock market over the next few months. This is the single most important short term catalyst to take this market higher. Seeing the stock market basically unchanged on Friday shows the indecision of investors. Without some data point I believe the market will gradually go lower. Don’t get me wrong I’m a true optimist, but the indices have run up through the month of July due in part to the spectacular earnings we have seen from many of the large companies. With earnings season coming to a close and the weak jobs report I see the market trading sideways if not to the downside in the short term.  Hopefully I’m dead wrong and the market trucks higher, but after all 3 major indices have run up roughly 9.0% since July 1st I don’t see this happening.

Next week the FED will be speaking about the state of the economy and my recommendation is to sit tight and not buy any stock until after the FED meeting. We haven’t had a major sell off in quite sometime so please be prepared and have some money sitting on the sidelines to buy when an opportunity presents itself.

Have a great weekend!

Clay-

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New Content every Thursday and Sunday.
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Oil Service Is Back In Business. Oh Yeah Don’t Forget About CAT!

What a day for stock market! Finally the stock market has a positive move with the earnings to back it up. Caterpillar (CAT) starting out the day destroying analyst estimates! Destroying! Destroying! Destroying! Man I’m excited. Yeah Buddy!!! CAT is a solid indicator for the future of the economy. They proved today that business and other countries are loosening their pocket books and putting money to work. CAT reported earning of $1.09 a share topping estimates of $0.85 a share and beating revenue estimates of $9.8 Billion coming in at $10.41 Billion. Another positive is they raised their full year estimates to $3.15 to $3.85 a share on sales between $39 to $42 Billion up from $2.50 to $3.25 a share with sales of $38 to $42 Billion according to http://finance.yahoo.com/ reported by Reuters. Although CAT is still cautious about the future of the economy their numbers were definitely something to smile about compared to last years earnings. Now that I’m done ranting about the Peoria Powerhouse better known as Caterpillar lets move onto the rest of the week’s earnings.

Weatherford International (WFT)-Beat Estimates $0.11 vs. $0.07 predicted by analysts. Upside surprise is always good for a beaten down stock like WFT. You should see higher prices in the future. I believe the bad news has finally run its course with WFT. This is still undervalued to its peers. If you want to make some quick bucks this is your huckleberry!

Apple (AAPL)-Beat Estimates $3.51 vs. $3.12 predicted by analysts. This also was 160% higher than last year’s earnings of a $1.35 a share. These are great numbers! Great iPhone and iPad sales. This will continue to be a strong stock.

Goldman Sachs (GS)-Beat Estimates $2.75 vs. $2.08 a share. Although earnings were less than last years 2nd quarter results this stock has been crushed and beaten down behind belief by the government. With the SEC settlement behind them I expect Goldman to come back strong. This is a turnaround, but you should never bet against Goldman Sachs because in the end they will win!

Also, on a good note for the oil service companies the 2nd largest player Halliburton (HAL) had a phenomenal quarter and beat estimates by a long shot $0.52 vs. $0.37 a share predicted by analyst that’s over 40% higher than expected. It definitely looks like oil production is starting to pick up and the recent earnings by the oil service companies brings a smile to my face since I truly am an oil man! With Schlumberger (SLB) reporting tomorrow I believe you will here a positive spin with SLB. They are the largest oil service company and the industry leader. I would expect nothing less than an earnings estimate beat by SLB. They are the leader for a reason. They are the linchpin of the oil service companies!

As you may notice the earnings for the stocks that I have selected for the prediction game are starting to come alive. I still would continue to invest in all my picks. (WFT, AAPL, GS, INTC, CAT) Although these companies have been quite volatile (even to my liking) they have the tendency to come back faster and harder then other stocks in the market. Don’t forget about my other stock I suggested Westport Innovations (WPRT) up 5.59% today. Still yet to be profitable WPRT has a bright future ahead of them.

Well that wraps it up for today. What a great day! I will definitely sleep well tonight! LOL! Watch SLB tomorrow morning. It should be a good one!

(All research was done @ http://finance.yahoo.com/)

Clay-

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Mutual Funds Continued... Aggressive Growth! Growth! And Value Funds!

First off I would like to say Yeah Buddy!! for the phenomenal show the Stock Market put on for us today!  That is one up for the good guys! One more push up for an early retirement!  Sorry I'm a little excited...   Now lets move onto the main attraction Mutual Funds.

Today I’m going to cover a broad definition of what an Aggressive Growth, Growth, and Value Funds consist of.  You will see a nice list of the 3 Funds below.

Aggressive Growth Fund: This type of fund takes on higher risk for greater reward. An Aggressive Growth Fund will consist of companies that have great potential for rapid growth. They may focus on small companies that have recently gone public, individual sectors, or hot trending stocks that just came out with a great new product or service. Other things that may occur are frequent trading for gains, using leverage, options trading, as well as shorting stock outright (betting a stock will go down). The reason behind this type of fund is solely for capital appreciation. This type of fund is not meant for the risk adverse, but if you want the potential to trounce the averages in the stock market and make some serious money and don’t mind the high volatility than this is your ticket for a great ride!

Growth Fund: Growth funds are similar to an Aggressive Growth Fund as it is geared towards capital appreciation. However, Growth Funds tend to back off the risk and volatility compared to the extreme Aggressive Growth Funds.  The difference in risk and volatility lies in the way the money is invested with reduced leverage and less trading frequency, but still tend to invest aggressively in small and mid cap companies with great potential. These are great funds to build wealth and can be used by a majority of investors.  This type of fund still holds a great deal of risk.  In my opinion the reward definitely outweighs the risk.

Value Fund: Value Funds consist of companies that have been determined to be out of favor by the stock market and have reached prices of value. Value as in the price compared to the fundamentals of the underlying company. Many of the so called Value stocks pay dividends as income to investors. The companies that are selected in a Value Fund tend to be steady growers that have lost their way. They may have slowed down in growth, are cyclical to the economy, may be in the middle of a restructuring turnaround, or have been taken down to low price levels do to short term negative news. hint... (BP which pays a 7.9% Dividend) This type of fund is great for the conservative investor since the dividends help prop the stocks up during bad times and thrive when the market recovers with capital appreciation. This fund is welcome to all!

For Sunday we will cover the last bit of Mutual Funds. I will explain what to look for in a funds track record, the expense ratio, the volatility, and a few other odds and ends.

Also, if you have a topic that you want me to cover Please... let me know.  I'll be happy to answer your investing questions.

Happy Memorial Day!

Thank You,

Clay-

Have a Question? Send Questions to wheatleycsmk@gmail.com

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Occasional Stock Market Commentary during the week.
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Watch For Stocks That Are Up On A Down Day!

Goldman Sachs is up for the day!  Keep an eye on a stock that shows strength on a down day.  Usually there is some underlying positive that can send a stock much higher once the market becomes positive.  Goldman Sachs was just an example of what to look for in future investments.  Fund Managers invest for the future and they start early before an uptrend occurs. When a stock is up on a down day usually indicates that there is some Institutional buying interest and this special situation shouldn't go unnoticed. 

Also, when the stock market opens down and makes a large move to the upside such as today, this is a positive sign that the market may be becoming more optimistic about the current price levels, which means that the tides may turn shortly from negative to positive.  I'm an Optimist so you know I'm going to go with the second option of the market turning positive. I've had enough of these Negative Nancy down days.  I'm ready to roll to much higher ground!

Thank You,

Clay-


Have a Question? Send Questions to wheatleycsmk@gmail.com



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Stock Market Worries? What Goes Up Must Come Down!

To all my followers it seems that the passed couple of days have been rough for anyone that owns stocks.  I'm here to tell you that everything will be just fine!  The U.S. Stock Market has been on a run since March of 2009 and frankly as the saying goes WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN!  Markets move up and down and there will be corrections along the way.  I'd rather see the stock market pull back gradually than what we experienced in 2008. 

Europe is playing a major role in dragging the U.S. Equity market down.  Please don't be discouraged because the best time to buy is when you feel awful about the stock market.  Invest in companies that have good fundamentals.  What I mean by that is companies that have good earnings, little debt, possibly a dividend, great management, and a optimistic outlook on future business. 

Many companies have been sold off way to far and warrant higher stock prices.  Stay optimistic and in the end you will be the one living comfortably in retirement!

Come visit tomorrow as I will have new material on what to look for when choosing a Mutual Fund for your 401K or other Retirement Fund.

Thank You,

Clay-

Have a Question? Send Questions to wheatleycsmk@gmail.com
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Stocks Trade In Negative Fashion/ What Really Makes Stocks Go Higher?

    Not much to say about today's trading.  The Market started in negative territory and showed some sign of hope during the middle of the day, but in the end the selling pressure continued as there wasn't anything to drive the market higher.  The job market is still an issue and Kohl's the retailer department store came out with disappointing earnings.  These are 2 negatives and with no real positive news to counter the bad there isn't really any reason for the stock market to go higher.  Why are jobs a big deal?  The reason is when jobs are created people spend more money to fuel the economy.  The economy won't prosper until the job market becomes positive. Kohl's on the other hand shows exactly what people are spending.  When consumers aren't spending money the retailers such as Kohl's profits are hindered by this.  Yes Kohl's put out earnings that were better than analysts expected, but didn't meet the future earnings that the analysts wanted to hear. Information gathered through http://finance.yahoo.com/

    Here is a little insight about the stock market.  The funny thing about stocks is that the Large Institutions and Fund Managers invest for the future. They are the ones with a large portion of the money invested in the stock market.  They don't care about what occurred or what has happened in the past.  They want to know what is the outlook for the future.  If the future is promising, that is where they are going to invest their money.  Once the outlook doesn't match with what the Large Institutions and Fund Managers are looking for they find other companies to invest in.  That is why you see stocks drop suddenly.  The Big Money is pulling out their investment and has found a better opportunity elsewhere. 

    The Large Institutions control the stock market.  This is a fact!  The key to investing is to find out where the Big Money is investing and buy those companies to take advantage of the Large Institutional buying that occurs.  The great thing about being a small investor is that you can get in and out of a stock much quicker than the Institutions.  Really if you could be right half the time and invest before the Big Money has a chance to be fully invested you will make money.  It can take some Large Institutions weeks to be fully invested in one particular company.  The reason behind that is in order for a Large Mutual Fund to perform and make people money they have to invest millions of dollars.  They can't just buy all at once because the demand would be so great it would drive the price of a stock through the roof! For Example:  A Fund Manager wants to invest $100 million in stock xyz.  In order for them not to show others what they are doing they must buy stock over a period of time.  So instead of investing $100 million all at once they may invest $5 million a day. That means it would take about 20 trading days or roughly a month to be fully invested.  That is how Institutions work!  In the end the small individual investor has the edge over the Large Institutions.  You just have to obtain the right information and you can beat them every time!

Thank You,

Clay-

If this was beneficial information or you would like to comment please do.  I would like to hear what you have to say.  Feedback Welcome! Ask me a question wheatleycsmk@gmail.com

Nice Day For Stocks! Dow up +148.65 points to close at 10,896.91 (+1.38%)

Looks like we could be back on track.  The past week or so has been brutal.  I'm seeing a lot of money flow back into my favorites.  Keep an eye on my suggestions. These are the market leaders! The companies that drive the stock market higher!  Let's see if tomorrow we can keep the positive momentum going.  Happy Investing!

AAPL- Apple up +2.17% today
WFT- Weatherford International (I really like this one) I personally own this company! up +2.90%
INTC- Intel up +3.64 % today
GS- Goldman Sachs (These guys will shrug off the SEC probe) up +3.68% today
CAT- Caterpillar up +3.15% today

Thank You,

Clay-

If this was beneficial information or you would like to comment please do.  I would like to hear what you have to say.  Feedback Welcome!

Stock Market Volatility! My Take On Today's Stock Trading

    Well today was a wonderful day to all that had their money invested in the stock market.  The Dow Jones closed up 404.71 points or 3.90% coming in at 10,785.14 and the NASDAQ closed up 109.03 points to 2,374.67 up 4.81%.  Lastly, the S&P 500 came in at 1,159.73 up 48.85 points or 4.40% according to http://finance.yahoo.com/ 

    A great deal of the upside came from the EU rescue package of $1 Trillion to help save the Euro and settle investors of the European debt market.  This helps keep money flowing and also put the short sellers up against the wall.  Short sellers are people that bet against the market.  This in turn creates buying from the shorts to cover their position of betting against the market and sends stocks higher.  Don't get me wrong today was a great day to make money and take some profits, but the market is still very volatile and unpredictable in the short term.

In the near term I'm still very cautious about this market as I sold some stock into the strength of the market today.  I believe the market will move back lower in the near future at least in some of the individual stocks that I follow.  This will give me a better opportunity to buy at lower prices  Today was a perfect example of why I enjoy investing.  Investing can be fun and profitable at the same time. If your not having fun you must be doing something wrong!  Everyday is different and you have to take it in stride. 

Thank You,

Clay-

If this was beneficial information or you would like to comment please do.  I would like to hear what you have to say.  Feedback Welcome!

How To Get Started Investing In The Stock Market

    So I recently was just asked in a previous post of where do I start to get into the market and how much money would I need to get into the game?

    There are multiple ways to begin investing in the stock market. Here I will suggest a few common ways to start investing. One option would be to open an online brokerage account. Opening an online account is very easy to do and is a great way to learn about stocks because it provides you with the tools to do your own research and allows you to buy and sell stocks at your discretion. Some online accounts require a minimum deposit to get started. However, Sharebuilder is an online service that requires very little money to get started. They state there is “No account minimum open an account with any amount.” I personally have experienced their service and highly recommend someone that would like to start investing to check out ShareBuilder and with a fee of $9.95 a trade it’s a low cost way to get your feet wet. Another great online broker is Scottrade. I personally invest in stocks through Scottrade. To open an account requires a modest $500 min Deposit and trades are only $7.00. I would suggest if you want to trade individual stocks to start out with at least $500. If you invest with less then $500 the transaction fees of buying and selling stock add up rather quickly and may affect your return on investment. Other comparable online reputable brokerage accounts are E*Trade (no min for retirement account $500 min deposit $9.99 a trade), Fidelity (min deposit $2,500 as low as $7.95 a trade), and TD Ameritrade ($1,000 min retirement account $2,000 min non retirement account $9.99 a trade) to name a few. I have only had experience with ShareBuilder and Scottrade so do your research to figure out which online brokerage best serves your needs. Online trades are subject to change and may very in prices depending on your account balance.

    Another way to invest would be through your bank. Banks offer many of the same types of services that online brokers provide and banks have the added benefit of building the one on one relationship that many desire. This is a great way for people that are uncomfortable investing online to have exposure to the stock market. Plus when you have a question about investing you can pay a visit to your local branch and do your banking at the same time.

    The last common way to invest would be through your employer in a retirement account. Depending on your employer they may match your contribution up to a certain percentage of your income. This is definitely a great advantage and gives you jump start on building wealth. I tell everyone that I come into contact with to take advantage of the company match. IT’S FREE MONEY!!! Another advantage is that the contributions you allocate per pay period are tax deferred, which means you will not be taxed until retirement. This will also lower your taxable income and may put you into a lower tax bracket. And lastly if you happen to change jobs you can always take your money with you and roll it over into another account.

If you have any specific questions that I didn’t cover please comment as this was only a brief overview of ways to begin investing in the stock market.

Thank You,

Clay-

If this information has been beneficial feel free to let me know. This will give me a good sense of direction for future topics.