Wednesday, February 29, 2012

02/29/12

Bought some more Weatherford International (WFT) last Thursday at $16.30 a share.  With the action today it looks like I will be able to buy more at a cheaper price. 

I'm still reading what Westport Innovations (WPRT) had to say today.  The stock has come down rather quickly.  It looks like they are improving, but they continue to burn a lot of cash. 

More on WPRT this weekend.

Clay-

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Weatherford... Destroyed Down -13.66%

Today was very unexpected.  What I can say from this disastrous day is diversification is your friend.   Weatherford International (WFT) dropped the bomb today telling the whole world that they have had issues calculating their true tax rate.  This will play a role in past financial statements from 2010 and prior.  That being said the stock was destroyed!!! 

Normally I would advise everyone to sell this stock, but I believe WFT is still a viable investment.  A great opportunity to buy this company much lower.  Now I'm not saying the stock will go up from here.  Actually I think the opposite in the near future.  It may waiver in the short term, but it will be much higher by the end of the year.  The fact is business is booming for Weatherford and the tax issue occurred in the past and played no part on the actual growth of the company.  From reading the earnings transcript business continues to strengthen for WFT and will continue into 2012.  The key to the success of WFT is the continued improvements in the international business. 

On a positive note WFT has admitted they had issues with calculating the effective tax rate, but has reassured investors that the tax rate will be under control in future earnings as management has had time to fully understand the tax structure of their business.  I have weighed the positives vs. the negatives and I can assure you this stock will have a short term rocky road.  What truly matters is the improvement in earnings through 2012 and in turn higher stock prices.

WFT is on my radar.  I currently have a small position and plan on buying more in the near future.  Weatherford may drop to 13 a share. Or it may not.  I will buying more before this happens.  I have confidence and so should you!  Remember to never buy all at once.  That way you will get the best price possible.

Have a great night! 

Clay-

Full Disclosure

Current Holdings:
Cosi Inc. (COSI)
Caterpillar (CAT)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Weatherford International (WFT)
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

First Monster Portfolio Purchase Of 2012

Welcome back everyone!  I made my first purchase of 2012 in my Monster Portfolio. And the winner is Weatherford International (WFT).  I had the day off from work today and was able to buy some WFT on weakness.  I have watched this stock rise and rise through the month of January and I decided to get in on the action! 

Weatherford reports earnings next Tuesday 02/21/12 and I plan to utilize this day to try and make some money.  2012 will be another solid year for energy stocks and I ran the numbers on WFT and from the projected 2012 EPS this stock should be trading near $25.00 by the end of 2012.  Currently WFT is trading around $17.25 a share.  From the numbers I believe WFT has the potential to go much higher! A potential return in excess of 40% by year end. Obviously, this is based on projections, but if I'm half wrong this stock will be trading at $21.00  a share.  I'm sure everyone wouldn't mind a 20% return on investment.  That being said I bought a small position today at $17.27 a share.  This stock has run up huge, but I still have plenty of money to spend if this gem heads even lower. 

Also, I purchased some Caterpillar (CAT) today in another account.  I mentioned last week that a good starting point to buy would be between $105-$110 a share.  I'm not sure it will get there!  I did a some more research and I uncovered that an insider purchased 1,000 shares of CAT stock back on 02/07 at $113.05 a share.  This changed my mind!  Large insider buying is added confidence that this stock will go higher.  As I always say insiders buy stock to make money just like us.  That being said I purchased some CAT stock at $114.06 a share.  I ran the numbers and this stock should be trading north of $140.00 a share by year end.  Another potential return in excess of 20% Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!

Clay-

P.S. Apple closed at $509.46 a share. (52 week high) LOL!  So much for buying this stock at $435 a share.

Full Disclosure

Current Holdings:
Cosi Inc. (COSI)
Caterpillar (CAT)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Weatherford International (WFT)
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Caterpillar-The Peoria Powerhouse

Less than a week ago I gave you  my take on Apple stock and now it's Caterpillar's turn!  That's right!  The Peoria Powerhouse.  Ticker symbol CAT

What I have learned from this phenomenal company is that business is good.  Business is so good that 2012 will be another year of growth for this company.  Growth is the easiest indicator pointing to higher stock prices in the future.  Now lets take a look at CAT's 4th qtr numbers and highlights.

-Record 2011 4th quarter revenues of $17.243 billion vs. 2010 revenues of $12.807 billion. 
-Revenue for the 4th quarter was 34.63% higher vs last year.  Truly amazing!
-4th quarter profit was $1.547 billion compared to $968 million this time last year
-EPS came in at $2.32, which is 57.82% higher than 2010 EPS of $1.47

Now let's take a look at the full year numbers

CAT's 2011 sales and revenues destroyed the 2010 numbers ($60.138 billion vs. $42.588 billion).  That's an increase of 41.20%!  On top of that profits for 2011 were 82.5% higher than 2010 coming in at $4.928 billion vs. $2.700 billion and full year EPS was $7.40 vs. $4.15 or a 78.3% increase.  I could really stop right here and tell you to buy this stock on the dips, but I have more to add to this wonderful earnings report. 

I promise this is the last list for the night.  Here are the remaining reasons I believe CAT will have another extraordinary year.

1. Raised full year 2012 sales and revenues to $68 to $72 billion (That's double digit growth)
2. Strong global demand for its products
3. Improved quality of products
4. Increased investment in product development
5. Integrate acquisitions and adding production capacity
6. 2011 produced record sales even with slow construction market in the US and Europe
7. Commodity prices are favorable, which means greater demand for engines and turbines for petroleum applications, as well as mining equipment.
8. Full time employees increased 20,609 from 2010.  125,099 employees vs. 104,490 in 2010.  Hiring is always a good sign for business!
9. Higher sales volume
10.  I saved the best for last.... Order backlog of $29.8 billion at the end of 2011.  That's an all time record for CAT!  That means the demand for CAT products is in full force.

In closing I believe CAT has plenty of room to run higher into 2012.  I would wait for a pull back say between $105-$110 before I would make an initial purchase.  That's a good starting point. 

Have a great night!

Clay-

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

APPLE-Solid/CAT-Solid

Did a little research since last week in regards to Apple and Caterpillar's earnings.  From listening to Apple's conference call and reading Cat's earnings transcript 2012 should be yet another great year for both of these companies.  Below is the link to Apple's earnings call.

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq112/

This is where I get all of my information. These calls are the key to my success in picking winning stocks.  Management plays a huge part in the price of the companies stock.  Great management equals higher stock prices.  Investing in quality companies comes down to confidence.  Confidence brings great quality investors, which is what you want when putting your hard earned money on the line. 

Apple (AAPL) is a perfect example of a company that has great management.  I enjoy listening to Tim Cook, Apple's CEO and Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO.  These are the guys that help you make a decision on Apple's future.  This particular call was very upbeat.

-record sales in 3 of their 4 major products
-strong sales activity in the U.S.
-continued demand for the iPhone 4S.  The channel inventory is lower than they predicted, which means they are moving them as fast as they can make them!
-Mac sales were up 26% yoy (year over year), that growth destroys the PC growth.
-Apple stores increased foot traffic in excess of 40% vs last year.
-Siri the iPhone 4S assistant has been a real hit.
-Increased convenience of purchasing Apple's products online.  You can purchase most products online and pick them up just a few hours later at your nearest Apple store. (I like this feature!)
- iPhone 4S first quarter results didn't include sales in mainland China, due to release in January

Those were just a few of the things I heard on this conference call.  In the end Apple will continue to outperform the market.  The stock hit a 52 week high of $458.99 today, but I'm not a buyer just yet.  If I were to purchase Apple it would be initiated around $435 a share.  I need a little pullback...

Caterpillar (CAT) will be next up for discussion later this week. One thing I can tell you is the Peoria Powerhouse will shine in 2012.

P.S.  Westport Innovations (WPRT) down -7.74%  This stock is to hot to handle.  It looks like I will have another shot at purchasing WPRT in the near future, before WPRT takes off again.  Natural gas is the future bridge fuel for the United States.  I expect a lot of activity to continue with businesses continuing to switch over to natural gas vehicles in order to save on fuel costs.  Be ready!  This type of stock doesn't come around very often.

I have yet to make a stock purchase in 2012!  I'm waiting to pull the trigger.

Have a great night!

Clay-